Can mass protests in Israel over hostages convince Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire agreement?

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israelis were gripped by grief and anger this weekend after the military said six hostages had been killed by their captors in Gaza as troops closed in on them. The outrage sparked mass protests and a general strike — the strongest domestic pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the war began nearly 11 months ago.

Many Israelis blame Netanyahu for the growing number of dead hostages and are calling for a ceasefire agreement to free the remaining 100 or so captives — even if it means ending the conflict. Sunday’s demonstrations were the largest show of support for the hostage deal since Oct. 7, when Hamas-led militants crossed into Israel and kidnapped 250 people.

But Netanyahu has already faced intense pressure to reach a ceasefire agreement from key government partners, top security officials and even Israel’s most important international ally, the United States. Yet a deal that would end the war in Gaza has yet to be reached.

Here’s how Israeli public outrage could affect Netanyahu’s next moves in the war:

Netanyahu’s position

Throughout the war, critics have said Netanyahu has put his political survival above all else, including the fate of the hostages. His rule relies on the support of two ultranationalist parties that were once on the fringes of Israeli politics but now hold key positions in the government.

Led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, they oppose any agreement that ends the war or frees Palestinian prisoners convicted of killing Israelis. They have vowed to overthrow the government if Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire — a move that would trigger elections that could remove Netanyahu from power.

“What he cares about is his political survival,” said Reuven Hazan, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “His political survival with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich does not allow him to end the war and bring back the hostages.”

Netanyahu blames Hamas for failure to reach agreement.

The prime minister also faces his ongoing trial on corruption charges. If Netanyahu is removed from power, he would lose a platform to criticize a judicial system he accuses of bias, and he would be unable to implement the government’s planned changes to the legal system that critics say could affect the trial and help him avoid conviction.

Netanyahu says he has the country’s best interests in mind and insists a military operation in Gaza is the best way to free the hostages. He also wants any deal to keep Israeli troops in two strips of land in Gaza and reiterated his insistence he would never agree to a withdrawal from either area on Monday.

Hamas has rejected the demands as irrevocable, a condition that has led to clashes with Defense Minister Netanyahu, who has said a deal to free the hostages should be the priority.

As the Gaza war has tolled — tens of thousands dead and swaths of territory decimated — Israel has become increasingly isolated internationally. Asked Monday whether Netanyahu is doing enough to broker a deal, U.S. President Joe Biden said: “No.”

Biden, who has never seen eye-to-eye with the Israeli leader despite their nations being close allies, has become increasingly critical of his counterpart’s leadership. But the timing of Monday’s remark was particularly pertinent because it came after demonstrations and an outpouring of grief over the hostages.

Strongest support for hostage deal

Many Israelis accuse Netanyahu of blocking a deal aimed at maintaining power, saying he is putting the lives of hostages at risk by not ending the war.

“It was Hamas that pulled the trigger, but it was Netanyahu who sentenced (the hostages) to death,” read an editorial in the liberal daily Haaretz on Sunday.

Since the war began, Israel has protested weekly in solidarity with the hostages. But over time, as Israelis have tried to return to some semblance of normalcy or been preoccupied with fears of a regional war with Iran or the militant group Hezbollah, the protests have tapered off. That has eased the pressure on Netanyahu, and talks on a deal have repeatedly failed.

But on Sunday, hundreds of thousands of people poured into central Tel Aviv, beating drums and chanting “Deal, now!” About 100 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza, about a third of them dead. Israel and Hamas are considering a three-stage proposal that would free them and end the war.

It was the largest demonstration Israel has seen since at least before the war, when Israelis took to the streets weekly to protest Netanyahu’s plan to overhaul the judiciary. While the protests, combined with a general strike, prompted Netanyahu and his government to back down or soften some decisions, the overhaul was halted only when the war broke out.

The limits of social pressure

The current public outcry has its limits. Sunday’s protest did not break through long-standing political boundaries and appeared to be largely composed of the same liberal, secular Israelis who protested the overhaul and Netanyahu’s leadership when he was on trial for alleged corruption. Many Netanyahu supporters say that backing down on any position in the talks now, after the deaths of six hostages, would send a signal to Hamas that it can reap the rewards of such violence.

Likewise, Monday’s strike reflected the same political divisions. Liberal municipalities in central Israel, including Tel Aviv, joined the strike, which led to the closure of public nurseries and kindergartens, as well as other services. But other cities, mostly with conservative and religious populations that tend to support Netanyahu, including Jerusalem, did not join the strike. And a labor court shortened the strike by several hours, limiting its effectiveness.

Without large, sustained protests across a broader spectrum of society, it’s hard to imagine Netanyahu feeling enough pressure to change his approach, said Hazan, the political scientist. And as long as his government is stable, he can stick to his demands in negotiations to appease his coalition and ignore the protests altogether.

Still, families of hostages found dead in Gaza said they hoped the protests marked a turning point in the war that could force progress on a deal.

In a eulogy for Hersh Goldberg-Polin, an Israeli-American who became one of the most high-profile prisoners, his father spoke of the emotional toll his death could have.

“For 330 days, my mother and I have been searching for the proverbial stone that we could turn over to save you,” Jon Polin said. “Maybe, just maybe, your death is the stone, the fuel that will bring the rest of the” hostages home.

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Associated Press reporter Zeke Miller wrote the article in Washington.